Archive for the 'Housing Outlook' Category

Homeowner relief plan

President Obama’s $75 billion Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan is intended help struggling homeowners by providing incentives to lenders, servicers, mortgage holders and borrowers to help modify mortgage loans.

More on the plan:

Wall Street Journal Blog: FAQ: Who Qualifies for Housing Bailout?

Washington Post: How the Program Would Work

CNN Money: Mortgage help: Do you qualify?

Bloomberg: Mortgage Plan Effect May Be Limited, Analysts Say

US News: The Obama Housing Fix: 5 Things to Know

ABC News: Obama’s Housing Rescue Plan Will Slow Home Value Slide as Early as March

CBS News: Who’s Eligible For Obama’s Mortgage Plan?

US Today: Millions could get help, but is foreclosure plan fair?

Time: Will President Obama’s New Housing Plan Work?

Seattle - A fading star?

It seems Seattle’s corporate image is getting a little tarnished. First, the city lost the headquarters of the area’s largest company, Boeing. Now, another major employer is expected to start packing (eventually), as Safeco shareholders voted to sell the company to Boston-based Liberty Mutual (I voted for the sale).

No doubt Safeco will remain around for a bit, but with insurance company acquisitions, most of the “home office” operations in downtown Seattle will be absorbed by the Liberty Mutual’s East coast operations. At best, Seattle will remain a regional office. Having worked for insurance companies prior to real estate I’ve been through or have witnessed from both sides the effects of several acquisitions. It’s safe to say Seattle will lose virtually all the company’s high-paying, intelligent jobs.

I suspect Starbucks will survive its current turmoil - the loss of 180 jobs at its SODO Center headquarters and closure of 600 stores. Now we hear, courtesy of the Daily Journal of Commerce, that Starbucks is selling two of its properties in Pioneer Square, including the new office building currently under construction on First Avenue.

The city’s other major employer, WaMu, is on shaky grounds as well. There seems to be no shortage of speculation about how long WaMu can survive as an independent company. And, they’re going through significant staffing reductions, too.

Seattle has lost two of its biggest companies in Boeing and Safeco while two others are fighting for survival. It seems the city’s once bright star is dimming. And, unfortunately, selfishly for me, this gut punch to the Emerald city’s psyche may impact the region’s economic and housing recovery.

May 2008 NWMLS Housing Report

(NWMLS Press Release)

KIRKLAND, Wash. (June 5, 2008) – “If you’re a buyer, this is the time to take advantage of unique market conditions.” That’s the message one industry leader offered in reviewing the latest report from Northwest Multiple Listing Service summarizing housing activity for the month of May.

NWMLS figures show inventory remains plentiful (up nearly 22 percent from the same month a year ago, and up about 5.4 percent from April), with thirteen of the nineteen counties in its service area reporting double-digit increases from twelve months ago. At month end, the selection included 43,546 single family homes and 8,271 condominiums – with one of every five of those listings classified as newly built.

“There are such great opportunities for buyers right now to position themselves for the future,” remarked J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate. “Interest rates are historically low, there’s a healthy inventory of homes to choose from, and the new, higher conforming loan limits have increased housing affordability,” he noted, adding, “If you’re a buyer, this is the time to take advantage of these unique market conditions.”

Prices area-wide are showing moderate fluctuation. While median selling prices in most counties served by NWMLS are down from a year ago, many areas are showing stability and even increases. In 30 “sub-areas” the MLS tracks within King County, for example, 21 areas reported higher prices in May compared to April.

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Foreclosures are catching fire, literally

From CNN Video: Desperate owners burn homes

February 2008 NWMLS Update

From NWMLS Press Release:

February housing activity around western Washington signaled signs of an emerging spring market with a noticeable increase in open house traffic, reports of multiple offers and a big jump in pending sales from the previous month.

New figures from Northwest Multiple Listing Service show a 23.6 percent increase in pending sales (offers made and accepted, but not yet closed) compared to January. Prices for last month’s closed sales of single family homes and condominiums (combined) were up in 12 of the 19 counties in the MLS service area.

“In March, the real estate market is set to get its mojo back,” remarked J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate. “We’re already seeing the momentum build as more and more buyers realize what a great time it is to buy a home thanks to low interest rates, healthy inventory, and a strong local economy,” he added.

Area-wide, the MLS reported 5,563 pending sales of single family homes and condominiums for February, up from January’s total of 4,499. Last month’s total still lagged the busier market of a year ago when there were 8,043 pending sales of single family homes (a decline of nearly 31 percent).

While encouraged by last month’s jump in pending sales from January, brokers also acknowledge hesitancy still exists among some buyers. However, among sellers, one broker said “they’re motivated like never before and willing to listen to reasonable offers much more readily today.”

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State Provides Foreclosure Counseling

The Seattle PI reported that Governor Gregoire signed into law a $1.5 million bill that’ll provide counseling to at-risk homeowners.

The money will go to agencies that counsel people facing foreclosures, as the governor tries to curtail effects of the mortgage loan crisis hitting the nation and the state. The bill signed Monday also will pay for a free number for people to call for help. The number, 1-877-894-HOME, will be operating in about two weeks.

2008 State of Downtown Highlights

The Downtown Seattle Association hosted its annual State of Downtown event last week providing an overview of downtown commerce, development and livability issues. Downtown housing highlights include:

  • Approximately 13% of Seattle’s housing units, or 37,320 units, are located in the downtown area.
  • The number of residents increased nominally to 54,773 people. However, the number of children living downtown increased to 2,814, about 100 more than reported for the prior year.
  • 16% of downtown units are owner occupied, 84% are rentals, unchanged from the prior year.
  • Since 1990, population grew by 61.1% compared to 12.7% for Seattle as a whole.
  • The average household income rose to 3.5% to $53,294 with a per capita income of $34,472.
  • 39% of residents over 25 years of age hold a bachelors degree.
  • Interestingly, there was a drop in the number of residents under 35 years of age, from 41% to 39% of all downtown residents. The average age is 43 years.
  • There are approximately 5,700 new residential units currently under construction or permitted.
  • Subsidized housing makes up 26% of all housing units in the downtown area.

Other downtown tidbits:

  • The number of coffee shops increased 2.9% in the past year to 207.
  • 231,532 employees, or 49.2% of all employees in Seattle, work in downtown, down slightly from the prior year.
  • 44.4% of Puget Sound’s office market is located downtown.
  • Over $1.1 billion in development projects were completed in 2007, up 44% from the prior year. Another $3 billion worth are currently under construction.
  • The amount of open space and parks expanded by 38% from 42 acres to 58 acres.
  • DSA reports that the number of tourists, entertainment seekers, conventioneers and sporting event attendees stood at over 18 million people.
  • 190 cruise ship vessel calls comprising over 781,000 boardings were experienced in 2007. The cruise ship industry generated $268 million in revenue and contributed $6.7 million in local & state taxes.

NWMLS 2007 Homes Sales Brokers Report

(Press Release from the NWMLS)

Members of Northwest Multiple Listing Service tallied more than $32.3 billion in sales of single family homes and condominiums during 2007 . The MLS also reported 18 of the 19 counties in its market area experienced increases in median prices compared to 2006, with one county matching the 2006 price.

In its year-end summary report, Northwest MLS, whose service area covers about 80 percent of the state’s population, logged more than 82,000 closed sales during 2007. Single family homes accounted for nearly 82 percent of the number of sales and about 86 percent of the dollar volume, with condominiums making up the balance.

Last year’s volume, measured by number of units, amounted to a drop of about 14.5 percent from 2006. The dollar volume, compared to the previous year, was down about 8.7 percent. Underscoring the “real estate is local” mantra, median price gains among the counties ranged from zero to nearly 16.1 percent.

Among highlights the broker-owned service noted for 2007:

  • The median price for single family homes that sold last year area-wide was $342,000, up 5.9 percent from the previous year.
  • Among the counties, the median selling price of a single family home (half sold for more, half for less) ranged from $154,500 in Grant County to $563,250 in San Juan County.
  • Five counties reported double-digit price gains for sales of single family homes compared to 2006, topped by Lewis County at 15.9 percent.
  • Condominium prices jumped 10.6 percent from 2006 to 2007. The area-wide median price rose from $235,000 to $260,000.
  • Kitsap County topped the charts in price gains for condos. Last year’s median sales price of $337,400 was 82.4 percent higher than the 2006 figure of $185,000. Several new developments contributed to the price jump.
  • 2,311 residences fetched more than $1 million, a 10.1 percent jump from the previous year. Of the million-dollar-plus sales, 2,186 were single family residences.
  • The MLS area covering Bellevue/West of 405, including the “Gold Coast” district encompassing Clyde Hill, Hunts Point, Medina, and Yarrow Point, had the highest number of million dollar-plus sales with 240.
  • 1,115 condominiums sold for $500,000 or more (including 125 condos that sold for more than $1 million). Seattle’s Belltown area claimed the highest number of condos that sold for a half-million dollars or more, with 201.
  • In the four-county Puget Sound region (King, Snohomish, Pierce and Kitsap), less than 5 percent (4.68 percent) of single family homes sold for under $200,000. Nearly three of every 10 homes (28.9 percent) sold for $500,000 or more.
  • Brokers added nearly 153,000 new listings of single family homes and condominiums to the inventory during 2007 (up from 140,449 the previous year).
  • NWMLS members sold more than 15,000 condominiums, about the same number as the previous year (15,038 in 2007 compared to 15,318 in 2006). About 63 percent of all condos that sold were in King County.
  • Single family homes accounted for about 83 percent of all residential sales. Of these transactions, more than half (52 percent) had three bedrooms.
  • The second quarter was the most active for pending sales, with 31.4 percent of those transactions being written during April, May or June. The last quarter, reflecting the usual seasonal slowdown plus turbulence in the mortgage market, was the slowest, with only 17 percent of pending sales taking place during that timeframe.
  • Counties within the MLS service area have wide variation of prices for 3-bedroom homes. For pre-owned homes (built 2005 or earlier) the median sales price ranged from $145,000 in Grant County to $500,000 in San Juan County. In King County it was $408,000.
  • For new homes (built in 2006 or 2007), the most expensive homes are found in San Juan County, where the median selling price was $685,000. In Grant County the median price on new homes was $182,059, earning it the distinction of being the only county in the NWMLS service area with a median selling price under $200,000 for a newly built single family home.
  • Mercer Island had the highest priced homes when comparing median prices by school district. Single family homes that sold in that district during 2007 had a median selling price of $1,081,250, followed by the Bellevue School District at $720,000.
  • Measured by “month’s supply” last year’s average was 5.57 months (meaning it would take that long to exhaust inventory at the current sales pace). The national average is 10.3 months, according to the latest report from the National Association of Realtors®.
  • Northwest MLS members maintained a high ratio of cross sales: about eight of every 10 sales (79 percent) were listed by one office and sold by a different office.
  • In King County, the average price of a residence (single family home and condo combined) that sold in 2007 was $497,855, more than twice the price paid a decade ago (1997 - $213,821). For single family homes (excluding condos) that sold in King County last year, the average price was $564,468; in 1997 it was $230,345 and in 1990, the average sales price was $178,187.

Northwest Multiple Listing Service, owned by its member brokers, is the largest full-service MLS in the Northwest. Its membership includes approximately 31,000 brokers and agents. The organization, based in Kirkland, currently serves 19 counties, mostly in western Washington, plus Grant, Kittitas and Okanogan counties in the central part of the state.

December NWMLS Update

KIRKLAND, Wash. (Jan. 7, 2008) – December brought few surprises in housing activity around Western Washington, with above-normal precipitation and floods contributing to the expected seasonal slowdown, according to officials from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

As December came to its soggy close (marked by a month with 25 days of precipitation for Seattle), brokers had an optimistic outlook, citing pent-up demand, positive job growth, stable prices, brisk activity at open houses, and other indications of an improving market.

“Traffic at open houses between Christmas and New Year’s was the heaviest we’ve seen in a long time,” reported NWMLS director Dick Beeson, broker/owner of Windermere/Commencement Associates in Tacoma. “Buyers were very upbeat and ready to act,” he added.

Brokers reported 3,950 pending sales (offers made and accepted but not yet closed) system-wide during December, lagging November’s total of 5,194 transactions. When compared to the same month a year ago, the number of pending sales dropped by about 31 percent (5,744 versus 3,950).

Prices overall were comparable to twelve months ago, with 13 of the 19 counties in the MLS market area reporting increases (including seven counties with double-digit gains). During the month, there were 4,634 closed sales of single family homes and condominiums with an area-wide median selling price of $313,325. That’s down slightly (0.53 percent) from the year-ago median sales price of $315,000.

Comparing counties in the Northwest MLS market area, the median sales price ranged from a low of $146,500 in Grant County to a high of $594,500 in San Juan County. For the four-county Puget Sound region, the median sales price for last month’s closed sales of single family homes and condominiums was $342,000.

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Seattle Housing Market Trends

There have been significant news reports about the housing market in the media lately. Most of the reports focus on falling prices, increasing foreclosure rates and rising inventory, but at a national level. Locally, how has Seattle fared?

In November, Seattle’s residential median price of $405,000 reflected a 2.2% increase over October, but a 4.7% decrease compared to the same period last year. As the graph below shows, the median price has been underperforming for the past few months.

Seattle Housing Median Price

Seattle Median Price Change

In reviewing month over month figures, the single family home median price has stabilized while condominiums have declined the past two months. However, when compared to last November, both single family homes and condos saw higher median prices in November 2007, increasing 3.3% and 2.5%, respectively.

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